Towards a low emission and climate resilient future in Montenegro
The Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) in Montenegro took place during the period May 2011 – October 2012 with the objective to identify technologies and measures for achieving the country's development goals with the lowest emissions and strongest climate resilience possible.
Various stakeholders took part in the TNA process, including representatives of ministries competent for climate change and related issues, relevant agencies and institutions (such as Environmental Protection Agency, Forest Administration, Hydro-meteorological and Public Health Institutes, etc.), local self-governments and business sector (energy, industry, forestry, tourist organisations), as well as experts from University, non-governmental sector and international organisations.
Priority development sectors are agriculture, forestry, energy and tourism; development of transport and infrastructure are also very important. Poverty reduction and alleviation of regional development disparities stand out as the key socio-economic priorities, whereas environmental priorities include protection of biodiversity, water resources and coastal area, waste management improvements etc.
According to the existing models and climate change projections for Montenegro, an increase in average temperature of up to 1.3 °C can be expected in certain areas by 2030 if global emissions grow at moderate rate, while changes in precipitation regime will range from + 5% to - 20% depending on the season and area. However, if global emissions grow more intensely, much more dramatic changes in the basic climate parameters can be expected in longer term. In the worst case scenario, average temperatures in the north of the country could increase by as much as 4.8 °C until the end of the century, while precipitation in the south could be halved.
The level of Adriatic Sea could rise for a maximum of 35 cm. Implications of climate change for development are significant. Changes in quantities and patterns of precipitation will in a long run lead to reduced flows and water resources abundance, which can, according to some estimation, reduce energy generation potential for hydropower sources by 25%. Available estimations of climate change damages for Montenegrin economy show that substantial decrease of revenues (in the range of € 33 to 68 million per year) from tourism could be expected in the far future, while damages from climate change that will be incurred to HPP Piva were estimated at close to € 7 million per year already as of 2030.
The TNA Montenegro report can be viewed/downloaded here.